Category: Uncategorized
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CFA level II – Financial Statement Analysis – Intercorporate Investments
Learning Module 1: Intercorporate Investments Basic corporate investment categories 1.1 Describe the classification, measurement, and disclosure under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for 1) investments in financial assets, 2) investments in associates, 3) joint ventures, 4) business combinations, and 5) special purpose and variable interest entities 1.2 Compare and contrast IFRS and US GAAP in… Read more
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《Tao Te Ching》by Lao Tzu
“无为,无知,无欲” 《道德经》可以由三个词来总结:无为,无知,无欲 何为“道”。《道德经》第一章里提到,”道可道,非常道”,道是一种不可观测的自然规律。这种观测不到的自然规律是自然存在但由于无法观测,所以难以用言语表达,若遵从“道”,则可以做到“无为而有所为”。 亚当·斯密(Adam Smith)的“看不见的手”是他在《国富论》(1776年)中提出的一个著名经济学概念。它指的是在市场经济中,每个个体追求自身利益的过程中,通过竞争和供需调节,市场资源可以得到有效的分配,仿佛有一只“看不见的手”在引导他们,最终实现社会整体利益的最大化。我认为这两只看不见的手有相似之处但也有显著的差异,首先,亚当·斯密的“看不见的手“局限在经济学框架之中,是一个有着明确定义的框架。”道”是存在于一切事物中的一种无形的力量。其次,“看不见的手“假设每个个体追求自身利益。《道德经》中追求“道”需要去做非自我意识行为,即一种“相信自己直觉”的感觉,这种感觉不是为了担心金钱的得失或是为了改善或维护自我形象。 无为 何为无为,无为通常会误以为等同于不做事,do nothing or no interventions,英语世界里,这个常见的误解可能来自《道德经》第四十八章:“取天下常以无事;及其有事,不足以取天下”(其实际含义是:如果能够做到无为,即不妄为,任何事情都可以有所作为。治理国家的人,要经常以不骚扰人民为治国之本,如果经常以繁苛之政扰害民众,那就不配治理国家了)。“无为”的真正含义应该是“非自我意识”的行为。 自我意识行为的问题:他让我们以希望的方式来看待世界而不是接受世界本来的样子。《道德经》希望我们像一面镜子来反映世界真实的样子,但是自我意识越强,欲望和自私就越多,镜子就越模糊和肮脏。现实生活中对成功的渴望会让人们对现实生活中的真相视而不见。无为是告诉我们,抛开自我意识行为,会看到这个世界实际上并不是你所希望的那样。 第二个《道德经》中被误解的地方是人们应该相信自己的直觉,专注于当下的感受。 但是事实却是相反,《道德经》告诉我们不应该相信自己的直觉,我们的直觉已经被“自我意识行为”所浸染,我们生活在一个倡导自我意识行为的世界里,我们提倡用标准化的成绩,财富水平,或者是学术上的贡献来评判一个人是否足够成功。我们的直觉早已被“自我意识行为”所浸染。《道德经》第十章里提到 载营魄抱一,能无离乎?专气致柔,能如婴儿乎?涤除玄鉴,能无疵乎?爱民治国,能无为乎?天门开阖,能为雌乎?明白四达,能无知乎?生之畜之,生而不有,为而不恃,长而不宰,是谓玄德。 这里提到要在被“自我意识行为”所浸染的社会中做到“无为”是很困难的事情,遗憾的是《道德经》也并没有提出解决方法。那么有什么方法能让我们更接近无为呢?也许我们可以进一步研究无知和无欲来达到无为。 自我意识行为与Alex Edmans的《May Contain Lies》,里的观点有相似之处。他们共同强调了Confirmation Bias和Bayesian Updates。Confirmation Bias非常常见,尤其是在商业领域。我们都会觉得自己的“独一无二的”天命之子,同样很多企业家会雄心勃勃的开展自己的商业计划,但是一旦陷入到了Confirmation Bias中后,企业家就会忽略掉与自己相信的蓝图相违背的信息导致商业失败。例如谷歌眼镜,谷歌眼镜是一个非常酷的产品,但是在现实生活中他却并没有很多受众。什么是Confirmation Bias,Confirmation Bias 指的是人们倾向于相信自己所支持观点,并会重点关注支持自己观点的证据,忽略反对自己观点的或支持与自己观点相反的观点的证据。 What is Confirmation Bias? The Confirmation Bias means people tends to believe what they support or what they believed “truth” igorning the real truth. Those people (maybe most… Read more
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CFA level II – Economics
Learning Module 1: Currency Exchange Rates: Understanding Equilibrium Value What is exchange rate? Forreign exchange market concepts 1.1 Calculate and interpret the bid–offer spread on a spot or forward currency quotation and describe the factors that affect the bid–offer spread Bid–offer pricing from dealers Bid–offer pricing from interbanks Arbitrage constraints on spot exchange rate quotes… Read more
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How to avoid a desk reject: do’s and don’ts
How to avoid a desk reject: do’s and don’ts (Beugelsdijk &Bird, 2024) JIBS Read more
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Control variables, methodology variation, and insignificance in empirical corporate finance
Methodological Variation in Empirical Corporate Finance, RFS, Todd Mitton, 2022 Read more
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What is a standard error?
Everything about standard error 🙂 when standard errors need to be ‘‘clustered’? Why? How to choose appropriate standard error? Three papers can answer 99% of my confusion. What is a standard error? (And how should we compute it?) Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2023 Discussion of “What is a standard error?” James L. Powell, 2023 What is a… Read more
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Wrong sign? Try and get it published.
“What should be done if your double-checking can turn up no reasonable explanation for the “wrong” sign? Try and get it published. Wrong sign puzzles, such as the Leontief paradox, are a major stimulus to the development of our discipline.“ (Kennedy, 2002) How to understand coefficients that reverse sign when you start controlling for things Read more
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CFA level II – Quantitative Method
Key point 1: Basic of Multiple Regression and Underlying Assumptions: Types of Regression Models: Interpret coefficients: Assumptions and residual plots: Key point 2: Evaluating Regression Model Fit and Interpreting Model Results Fitness of model F-statistics measurement Calculate and interpret a predicted value Key point 3: Model Misspecification Heteroskedasticity Serial correlation (or autocorrelation) Multicollinearity Key point… Read more
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Text-based Machine Learning in Financial Measurements
Machine learning has been widely and rapidly adopted to create new measurements that are difficult to proxy or gauge from traditional financial reports or articles. In the context of text-based analysis, machine learning can assist finance and accounting researchers in extracting information from the language used in financial documents, such as earnings calls. Many top… Read more
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Good controls and bad controls